Tiyani Hahlani
Centre News Hub
Harare- Zimbabwe, is bracing for a possible drought season after the Meteorological Services Department (MSD) issued an urgent preliminary warning recently over a likely El Niño event expected to affect the 2026/27 rainy season.
The warning was issued as part of efforts to strengthen the implementation of the Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative, which aims to ensure universal protection from hazardous hydro-meteorological and climate-related disasters through life-saving multi-hazard early warning systems.
According to the MSD, global forecasting centres are indicating an 88% to 94% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between July and November this year.
Historically, El Niño events are associated with a 65% chance of below-normal rainfall in Zimbabwe, posing serious threats to water security, agriculture, and the country’s socio-economic stability.
El Niño is a global climate phenomenon linked to the warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and is commonly associated with drought conditions across Southern Africa.
The department said that while advanced Detection, Observation, Monitoring, Analysis, and Forecasting systems are being used to track developments, early-season predictions remain uncertain due to what meteorologists call the “spring predictability barrier,” where oceanic and atmospheric conditions can still shift significantly before the onset of the rainy season.
“Based on this inherent uncertainty, the MSD has not yet issued its official seasonal forecast and warns the public and stakeholders against making final agricultural or financial decisions based solely on these preliminary models,” said the department.
Through its warning dissemination and communication systems, the MSD said the preliminary alert was intended to inform communities, farmers, and businesses of possible climate risks while allowing time for preparedness and response planning.
The department further emphasized that a definitive National Climate Outlook (NACOF) for the 2026/27 season will be released in August, following the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF), where regional forecasts and hazard monitoring data will be consolidated.
Communities have meanwhile been urged to remain vigilant and avoid panic-driven decisions while adopting proactive measures such as water conservation, early land preparation, and the use of drought-tolerant crops.
The public was also encouraged to rely on official updates from the Meteorological Services Department as the situation develops to ensure timely access to credible early warning information.
The El Niño alert has once again highlighted Zimbabwe’s growing vulnerability to hydro-meteorological hazards and the increasing importance of strengthening climate resilience and early warning systems under the EW4All initiative.
